The Best Time For Buyers In Manhattan To Pounce? Right Now

Key Takeaways:

– Manhattan has been experiencing a buyers’ market since the summer of 2022.
– Buyers are at an advantage in Manhattan right now, with sellers facing a low activity period.
– The buyers’ market is expected to end soon as seasonal activity and decreasing mortgage rates pick up.
– Prices in Manhattan have fallen roughly 10 percent since their peak in April of 2023.
– Liquidity is low and falling further to three-year lows for the measure of demand.
– Sellers are facing a tough environment in Manhattan, according to UrbanDigs’ listing climate index.
– The leverage window for buyers should remain open for another few weeks before fading as activity picks up.

inman:

Manhattan has been experiencing a buyers’ marker since the summer of 2022, a new report argues, but the winds are about to shift.

While homesellers in Manhattan are facing an unusually challenging market, a new report suggests that buyers are encountering a surprisingly opportune time to purchase property in one of the nation’s most expensive markets.

The report, shared with Inman by the real estate analytics firm UrbanDigs, argues that potential buyers are at an advantage in Manhattan right now, with sellers contending with an exhausting period of low activity that is poised to result in better deals for buyers.

That buyers’ market is bound to end soon though, the report states, as seasonal activity looks bound to pick up amid decreasing mortgage rates. 

While the prevailing narrative in the Manhattan market — as well as much of the nation —  for the past 18 months has been a dire lack of inventory, more recent trends suggest that narrative is beginning to change, the report’s author told Inman.

“We started looking at the data and we started seeing contract signings in November and December were slightly higher than they were last year,” said John Walkup, co-founder of UrbanDigs. “Price per square foot started to show a little bit of a bounce up, so all of the stuff we’ve been reading about, hearing about, this low volume, perhaps that narrative might be running out of steam and we might be on the upswing of something new here.”

UrbanDigs

The report found that prices in Manhattan have fallen roughly 10 percent since their peak in April of 2023 when viewing price-per-square-foot trends in Manhattan’s condo resale market. The report’s authors anticipate a seasonal uptick once winter turns to spring, meaning now is the ideal time for buyers looking to take advantage of falling mortgage rates.

The report also found that liquidity is low and falling further to three-year lows for the measure of demand.

“While fewer buyers are stepping up, those who do purchase in low-liquidity markets tend to look back favorably versus buying in highly liquid, active markets where fewer discounts and leverage are being offered,” the report’s authors wrote. 

For sellers, the current environment in Manhattan is undeniably tough, according to UrbanDigs’ listing climate index. When more listings are successful and are going under contract, the index rises. However, the index has been in a progressive decline since the spring of 2023. By that logic, buyers should be in the prime position to take advantage, the report argues.

UrbanDigs

 “It is a tough environment for sellers, and it’s been this way for the majority of the last 19 months,” the report reads. “Flip that around, and you have a moment in time that offers opportunity for willing and able buyers.”

The report states that Manhattan has been experiencing a long-duration buyers’ market since the summer of 2022 — albeit a challenging one — but that seasonal trends and changes in mortgage rates could very quickly shift the favor back to sellers, with the report predicting seasonal activity to start picking up in February.

The leverage window for buyers should remain open for another few weeks and then will likely fade as activity picks up,” the report reads. 

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Property Chomp's Take:

Manhattan has long been known as one of the most expensive real estate markets in the United States. However, a new report suggests that the tide may be turning, and buyers are now in a prime position to take advantage of falling prices and mortgage rates.

According to the report by real estate analytics firm UrbanDigs, Manhattan has been experiencing a buyers' market since the summer of 2022. Sellers have been dealing with a period of low activity, resulting in better deals for potential buyers. The report predicts that this buyers' market will soon come to an end as seasonal activity picks up and mortgage rates decrease.

The report's author, John Walkup, co-founder of UrbanDigs, notes that recent data shows contract signings in November and December were slightly higher than the previous year. Additionally, the price per square foot has started to show a bounce up, suggesting a shift in the market narrative. Walkup believes that the low volume narrative may be running out of steam and that Manhattan may be on the upswing of something new.

The report found that prices in Manhattan have fallen approximately 10 percent since their peak in April of 2023. This decrease in prices, coupled with falling mortgage rates, presents an ideal opportunity for buyers looking to invest in Manhattan real estate. The report also highlights that liquidity is low, meaning there are fewer buyers in the market. However, buyers who do purchase in low-liquidity markets tend to look back favorably on their decision.

While sellers are facing a tough environment in Manhattan, buyers have the advantage. UrbanDigs' listing climate index, which measures the success of listings going under contract, has been in decline since the spring of 2023. This decline indicates that buyers are in a prime position to make advantageous deals.

However, the report cautions that this window of opportunity for buyers may not last long. Seasonal activity is expected to pick up in February, potentially shifting the market back in favor of sellers. Therefore, buyers are advised to act quickly to take advantage of the current market conditions.

In conclusion, Manhattan's real estate market has been experiencing a buyers' market since 2022. Falling prices and mortgage rates present an opportune time for buyers to invest in one of the nation's most expensive markets. However, this window of opportunity may be short-lived, as seasonal activity is expected to increase in the coming months. Therefore, buyers are encouraged to act quickly and bet big on their future in Manhattan's real estate market.

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